“My grandfather chose India over Pakistan, ensured Murshidabad stayed in this country, and they deleted my name.” A visibly upset Chhote Nawab, Syed Reza Ali Mirza, a direct descendant of Mir Jafar, told TOI in Murshidabad. A few hundred metres away, a Hazarduari guide and a tonga puller expressed the same regret. Despite holding documents that, they say, go back more than 300 years, their names have been deleted in the SIR process. They still have deep faith in the Constitution and in the electoral process, and believe their names will eventually be restored. But the sense of disappointment, of feeling suddenly left out and marked in their own backyard, is hard to miss. Versions of that sentiment surface across several parts of south Bengal, from Chowringhee in Kolkata to Howrah Uttar and Howrah Madhya, and from Bhangar in South 24 Parganas to Deganga in North 24 Parganas, where many residents claim that despite having valid documents, they have faced the brunt of this clean-up.That anger now plays out against a shifting electoral backdrop. After adjudication, 27,16,393 of the 60,06,675 voters placed under scrutiny were deleted. At the same time, the rolls also see fresh additions through Form 6, taking the electorate to 6,82,51,008. Even after those additions, however, the total remains 83,86,521 below the pre-SIR figure, which is why the sense of hurt continues to run deep in affected neighbourhoods.
In Tikiapara, Howrah, Hafiz, an 85-year-old rickshaw puller, challenges Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar to inspect his papers and says he can match the CEC document for document. Across several minority pockets, the mood is one of simmering suspicion. Many residents see the deletions not as routine scrutiny but as deliberate exclusion. Quite a few link it directly to their perceived loyalty to the ruling Trinamool Congress. “Didi ke harate chaye EC”, “the EC wants to defeat Didi”, is a claim that comes up repeatedly. In Howrah, local Trinamool functionaries argue that such a move could backfire, because those Muslims whose names remain on the rolls may now feel even more compelled to vote for the party. Former minister and Kamarhati candidate Madan Mitra makes the point bluntly: even if only one vote remains valid, that vote goes to Trinamool.
Many Muslim voters say Mamata Banerjee has ensured that communities live in relative peace, has not openly discriminated against any religion, and has kept welfare schemes flowing. In that telling, voting for the Trinamool becomes less a matter of enthusiasm than of duty and protection. That feeling appears strongest in places where the party is seen as the only viable force capable of keeping the BJP out.That consensus, however, is not uniform. In places like Bhangar, Muslim ISF supporters complain of discrimination from the TMC government in housing benefits. In Baharampur, Adhir Chowdhury accuses the ruling party of having planned a riot in 2024. Sabir Ahamed, director of the Sabar Institute, believes that, cutting across geography, the effect of SIR is likely to consolidate minority support behind the ruling party. In his reading, visible anti-incumbency among minorities on issues such as OBC reservation and the Waqf Bill has now receded behind a more immediate fear about documentation, exclusion and vulnerability. He argues that, for many, the election becomes a question of survival and they may opt for TMC which has been strident in its opposition to SIR compared to other parties like Left, Congress and ISF.Ahamed’s reading of the data is that the clean-up pattern changes between the ASDD stage (absent, shifted, dead or duplicate) and the under-adjudication stage. According to him, Muslim-dominated seats initially show a relatively high level of mapped population, while Matua areas appear more unmapped.
But once the under-adjudication data is mapped against Muslim population, the pattern shifts. He says there is a clear positive correlation between the under-adjudication percentage and Muslim population. His analysis is the final rolls too bear a similar trend.
He points to constituencies such as Shamsherganj, Lalgola, Bhagabangola, Metiabruz, Farakka and Mothabari as examples of places that see large deletions after scrutiny. The broader constituency data, too, shows especially heavy deletions in Murshidabad, along with significant losses in Malda, North Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, Birbhum, and Matua-dominant pockets of North 24 Parganas and Nadia. Ahamed says places like Domkal and Farakka were over 90% mapped, but have now faced widespread deletion. The researchers have taken up Bhowanipore and Nandigram, the most talked-about constituencies in these polls for micro level analysis, and have found a disproportionately high rate of deletion among Muslims. All this shows a biased method of deletion, feels Ahamed.
At the same time, not everyone agrees that this automatically translates into a clear electoral dividend for the Trinamool. Political commentator Subhamoy Maitra says there is no definitive evidence to suggest that voters in Muslim-dominated districts such as Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur will shift en masse to the ruling party simply because of the large-scale deletions. Instead, he argues, those unhappy with the government may still repose their faith in the Congress and the Left. Referring to the 2024 general election results, he notes that the third front improved its vote share from 2021 and still retains a meaningful base. On the broader clean-up, he says the deletion of around 58.2 lakh ASDD names in the draft roll could potentially hurt the ruling party, which has long prided itself on its organisational strength, but he cautions against drawing any straightforward conclusion.
The Congress ran an aggressive campaign in Malda and Murshidabad, with Rahul Gandhi leading the way in Shamsherganj. The party has more than a chance in places like Sujapur, Malatipur, Ratua and Chanchal in Malda, and Jalangi, Lalgola, Baharampur, Sagardighi and Farakka in Murshidabad. Similarly, the Left fancies its chances in seats like Khargram, Kandi, Domkal and Murshidabad. In Chopra, Karandighi and Chakulia in North Dinajpur, and Kumarganj in South Dinajpur, proper three- or four-way contests are expected. In such contests, even a slight shift in loyalty can tip the balance of power. With keeping the BJP at bay remaining the primary objective, the minority community is likely to weigh its options carefully.It is no secret that Muslim voters have steadily moved towards the Trinamool since 2011. With Muslims accounting for around 27% of Bengal’s population, they often hold the difference between the victor and the vanquished. In the two Muslim-majority districts of Malda and Murshidabad, the Trinamool’s vote share rose by close to 10 percentage points between 2011 and 2021. During the same period, Muslim representation in the Congress and the Left collapsed, while the Trinamool’s rose sharply. Yet 2024 also shows that the ruling party is not unshakeable in these belts. It slipped in Murshidabad and fell behind in all 12 assembly segments of Malda. That is what keeps the Congress and the Left relevant, even if their lack of alliance, and the presence of formations such as Humayun Kabir’s AJUP, make the picture more complicated.Many believe Mamata Banerjee’s inclusive politics has won the approval of minorities. Others argue she has simply treated them as a captive vote bank. Either way, minority support remains one of the main pillars of the Trinamool’s electoral strength. Post-SIR, the anger among minority voters is undeniable. The question is whether it is substantial enough to consolidate support behind Didi to help her secure a fourth term, escaping clear signs of anti-incumbency. We will know in a few days’ time.
