The NBA has disclosed to its 30 general managers a new anti-tanking draft reform termed the “3-2-1 lottery” that includes expanding the lottery to 16 teams, flattened odds and a relegation zone where the bottom three teams would be penalized with fewer lottery balls for the No. 1 pick, starting with the 2027 draft, sources told ESPN on Tuesday.
The league office has held multiple critical meetings with its board of governors, competition committee and 30 general managers over the past few weeks to narrow toward this new singular proposal ahead of the owners having a final vote on May 28, sources said. There could be minor modifications to the proposal, but the key points of the framework have a majority of the support from teams, according to those sources.
The “3-2-1 lottery” proposal, named to represent the number of lottery balls per team, would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams. Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but stay out of the relegation zone (spots four through 10) would receive three lottery balls each. Teams with a bottom-three record — the relegation area — would have only two lottery balls but have a floor of the No. 12 pick, and the rest of the 13 lottery teams could fall as far as the No. 16 pick.
The Nos. 9 and 10 play-in seeds in each conference receive two lottery balls each, and the losers of the 7-8 play-in games receive one lottery ball each. Previously, the league drew odds for only teams with the bottom four records in the league, while the other 10 lottery teams were ordered by inverse record. Under this proposal, all 16 teams would be in the drawing.
In addition, no team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks. Teams also would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.
The proposal includes a sunset provision so that the new system would expire after the 2029 draft and allow the board of governors to continue the system or transition to a new one. The NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2029-2030 season.
The league would also have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking and have the option to reduce lottery odds and/or modify draft positions for teams under the proposal.
All the involved parties have brainstormed and developed several concepts over the past few months before finding this 16-team reform that high-ranking officials across the NBA say they believe will discourage losing while drawing lottery balls for all 16 qualifying teams. It also encourages winning, particularly during the second half of the season, as the teams ranked near the bottom three would want to get out of the relegation zone while teams above them work for victories to stay out of the relegation zone.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver made it clear in March that fixing tanking was his top priority and that there would be fundamental changes to the league’s draft system to try to prevent it from happening moving forward. The tanking issue escalated this season because of the loaded 2026 draft class and because, as Silver pointed out, the incentives in place push teams to do whatever they can to maximize their chances of getting lucky in the NBA’s draft lottery each spring.
“I do think ultimately this is a decision that needs to be made at the ownership level,” Silver said following a two-day NBA board of governors meeting in March. “It has business implications, has basketball implications, has integrity implications for the league.
“So, it’s one that we take very seriously, and we are going to fix it. Full stop.”
