Why 5th time could be the charm for ‘Abbott Elementary,’ ‘Only Murders in the Building’ in Best Comedy Series

At the Emmys, all of the drama is in the comedy categories. That’s because last year’s big winner, The Studio, is currently filming its second season, meaning it won’t be in the running this time around. That leaves an opening for a new champ to emerge in Best Comedy Series, and there are a couple of contenders that have been waiting a long time for their big night: Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building.

Sure, returning champ Hacks is the odds-on favorite, according to Gold Derby’s prediction data. The the showbiz comedy certainly has a leg up, having won this category for its third season in 2024. With The Studio taking a year off, there’s good reason to suspect the HBO Max series will enjoy a victory lap for its fifth and final season. Yet both Abbott and Murders could pull off the the surprise win by following a similar path to victory as Hacks did: playing the long game.

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Emmy Awards Nominations 2026

Comedy Series Comedy Actress Comedy Actor Comedy Supporting Actress Comedy Supporting Actor Comedy Guest Actress Comedy Guest Actor Drama Series Drama Actress Drama Actor Drama Supporting Actress Drama Supporting Actor Drama Guest Actress Drama Guest Actor Limited Series Movie Movie/Limited Actress Movie/Limited Actor Movie/Limited Supporting Actress Movie/Limited Supporting Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Hacks

87.5%

2.

Shrinking

86.6%

3.

Abbott Elementary

85.9%

4.

Only Murders in the Building

85.9%

5.

The Comeback

79.7%

6.

The Bear

77.6%

7.

Margo’s Got Money Troubles

77.3%

8.

Nobody Wants This

58.3%

9.

Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat

16.9%

10.

American Classic

10.9%

11.

Rooster

10.5%

12.

The Chair Company

10.5%

13.

Palm Royale

4.1%

14.

Widow’s Bay

3.9%

15.

Wednesday

3.2%

16.

The Lowdown

2.2%

17.

The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins

1.7%

18.

Big Mistakes

1.2%

19.

Wonder Man

0.9%

20.

Peacemaker

0.7%

21.

I Love L.A.

0.6%

22.

Poker Face

0.6%

23.

Ghosts

0.6%

24.

Running Point

0.4%

25.

Murderbot

0.4%

26.

The Paper

0.4%

27.

Platonic

0.4%

28.

Scrubs

0.4%

29.

Emily in Paris

0.3%

30.

Elsbeth

0.3%

31.

Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair

0.3%

32.

Chad Powers

0.3%

33.

Ted

0.3%

34.

Ponies

0.3%

35.

St. Denis Medical

0.3%

36.

All’s Fair

0.1%

37.

Too Much

0.1%

38.

Spider-Noir

0.1%

39.

Overcompensating

0.1%

40.

And Just Like That

0.1%

41.

Loot

0.1%

42.

Leanne

0.1%

43.

Happy’s Place

0.1%

44.

Boots

0.1%

45.

The Four Seasons

—

46.

The Hunting Wives

—

47.

Young Sherlock

—

48.

Best Medicine

—

49.

The Miniature Wife

—

50.

The ‘Burbs

—

51.

Deli Boys

—

52.

DMV

—

53.

English Teacher

—

54.

Stick

—

55.

Sunny Nights

—

56.

Gen V

—

57.

A Man on the Inside

—

58.

Twisted Metal

—

59.

Tulsa King

—

60.

Shifting Gears

—

See All Predictions

During its first two seasons, Hacks couldn’t catch a break against back-to-back champ Ted Lasso, despite winning prizes for writing, directing, and, of course, Jean Smart in lead actress. Yet after taking a year off due to the WGA and SAG strikes, Hacks came roaring back to take down one-time victor The Bear. Slowly but surely, the show built up enough support throughout the Television Academy to pull off an upset. It’s indicative of the Emmys’ long history of giving a show its moment to shine after paying its dues.

In 2020, Schitt’s Creek swept the comedy categories for its sixth and final season, taking all four acting prizes in addition to writing and directing. It was a remarkable run for a series that couldn’t even get nominated until its fifth season, let alone win anything. Although HBO’s Veep kept racking up wins in its first three seasons for lead actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, it couldn’t take down five-time comedy series champ Modern Family until Season 4 (2015), after which it went on a three-year winning streak.

Everybody might love Raymond today, but Emmy voters didn’t take a shine to Everybody Loves Raymond until its third season (1999), the first time it competed in Best Comedy Series (or any Emmys, for that matter). The show had to wait until Seasons 7 (2003) and 9 (2005) to win the big prize, with a victory for the first year of Arrested Development sandwiched in-between. The year prior to Raymond‘s first prize, perennial bridesmaid Friends finally sealed the deal with its eighth and final season in 2002. That win was all the more remarkable by the fact that it missed the comedy series lineup the year before, when Sex and the City snagged its only prize in the Best Comedy Series category for Season 3.

In the ’90s, Seinfeld didn’t take the big prize until its fourth season (1993), having finally been nominated for the first time the previous year. The ’70s cop comedy Barney Miller finally got its due with its eighth and final season (1982). Another ’70s classic, The Mary Tyler Moore Show, enjoyed three consecutive victories starting with its fifth season in 1975 and ending with its seventh in 1977, having previously lost to All in the Family (1971-73) and M*A*S*H (1974). Comedy classic Get Smart took back-to-back wins for Seasons 3 (1968) and 4 (1969).

According to the Gold Derby odds, Shrinking is in second place for its third season, with Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary holding third and fourth place odds for their respective fifth seasons. Shrinking has yet to collect any hardware on its first two tries, while both Murders and Abbott have won multiple Emmys on their first four tries: Murders has taken home seven Creative Arts prizes, while Abbott won trophies for writing, acting (Quinta Brunson and Sheryl Lee Ralph), and casting. A clearer picture will be painted once nominations are announced on July 8 — the show with the most support throughout the branches will become Hacks’ clearest competition.

So if history has taught us anything, it’s that Hacks might not want to start clearing space on its trophy shelf just yet. If anything, a victory for either Abbott or Murders would be in keeping with the core message their competitor: it’s never too late for a comeback!

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