Some El Niño Years Bring Early Hurricanes
A super El Niño is increasingly likely later this year, and it could become record strong with potential global impacts on rainfall and temperatures from summer through winter, as well as the 2026 hurricane season.
Trending Toward El Niño
The central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters continue a steady march toward El Niño following the La Niña that was in place since last summer.
You can see this in the animation from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center below. Note the warmer than average ocean water encroaching from both the east and west near the equator while the cool anomalies have faded since the middle of February.
This animation shows ocean surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius over the tropical Pacific Ocean from Feb. 11 – April 29, 2026.
(NOAA/CPC)
Latest Model Forecasts
Various computer forecast models run this month continue to be bullish on this future El Niño.
For instance, the latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has trended stronger for the upcoming El Niño compared to last month’s forecast, as you can see in the animation below.
While this model has previously forecast water temperatures too warm in spring forecasts, so far that “too warm error” hasn’t happened this year, according to University of Miami scientist Andy Hazelton.
ECMWF ensemble model forecasts made on April 1 (first frame) and May 1 (second frame), 2026, for sea-surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for the upcoming El Niño through late 2026.
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
‘Super El Niño’
El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months. There have been 27 El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.
But this won’t be your garden-variety, weak El Niño.
The majority of model forecasts now suggest there is at least a 50-50 chance this El Niño could become a “super El Niño,” one in which ocean surface temperatures are at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
(WATCH: What Is A Super El Niño?)
These super El Niños are more rare.
There have been only five since 1950, the last occurring 11 years ago from 2015-16. They also occured in 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. Super El Niños have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.
Record Strong?
Several model forecasts now suggest this El Niño could eventually top out at least 2.5 degrees above average by autumn, placing it among the most intense on record.
“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s,” wrote Paul Roundy, a University of Albany professor and El Niño expert, in a post on X Tuesday.
You can see this tongue of anomalously warm water forecast by the European model in the map below, stretching from the coast of South America to the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The forecast sea-surface temperature anomalies — in degrees Celsius — from August-October 2026, based on the May 1 forecast. The potential super El Niño is depicted by the darkest brown contours from South America to the central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
(European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
Another reason boosting confidence in this intense El Niño are surges of westerly winds near the equator in the western Pacific called westerly wind bursts.
“These periods of strong winds blowing west to east are pushing warm waters onto the equator and driving them eastward, contributing to rapid warming in the eastern Pacific,” Roundy wrote in an earlier email to weather.com.
Roundy noted an early April burst was one of the strongest in at least several decades and in his same X post said, “The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”
El Niño’s Potential Impacts
First, some disclaimers.
El Niño (and its counterpart, La Niña) is only one influence on the global weather pattern. Also, every El Niño is different, much like every hurricane can have its own idiosyncrasies.
But, in general, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will impact global weather.
Here are some of those potential impacts.
Hurricane season
A stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.
So, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That’s not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated.
Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.
(IN DEPTH: Strong El Niño Hurricane Seasons | Effects On Tracks | Caribbean Travel Impacts)
Winter
In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.
That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.
Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.
(IN DEPTH: What A Super El Niño Means For Winter In Your State)
Global Precipitation
El Niño’s impacts typically extend around the globe. Those are highlighted on the map below.
For example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Niño.
On the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically sets the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Niño.
Typical global precipitation impacts during an El Niño.
(NOAA)
Global Temperatures
One impact we’re highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Niño. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.
As the graph below nicely illustrates, the large majority of El Niños have triggered temperature spikes, including the last “non-super” El Niño in 2023.
The previous super El Niño crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015.
Given last year was the planet’s third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.
From a climate change angle, this is worrisome.
A December 2025 study found super El Niño events can drive sudden “climate regime shifts” in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.
(MORE: Summer 2026 Outlook)
Monthly global temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from 1950 through February 2026. El Niño months are denoted in red, La Niña months are in blue, and months in a neutral phase are in gray.
(NOAA/NCEI)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
